Journal/No. 002
NAV 8,248,539.30, up 4.3% week-on-week. TWR YTD 27.38%. TWLO crossed 296 after beating estimates. SOFI added 2,000 shares. Options overlay rolled to October expiries.
NAV 8,248,539.30, up 4.3% from last week's 7,911,491.63.
Dashboard TWR YTD 27.38% versus NASDAQ 12.21%. Grid YTD this week: 27.77%. Both prints kept.
17 equities, 51 short listed options, 68 lines.
What changed
TWLO rose too fast after Q3 beat (18 Sep). Revenue 1.03B vs 1.01B est, Q4 guidance raised to 1.07-1.08B vs 1.05B consensus. Name crossed 296, up 20% in one week. Can't chase at this level. Trimmed 100 shares above 290 to rebalance. Position now 400 shares at cost basis 219.29. Still high conviction but managing concentration. Sold Oct 02 242.5 put (not call) to keep some exposure and collect premium on a pullback. The short straddle rolled from Sep to Oct; the 242.5 call is now deep ITM at 54.10.
SOFI down to 16.77 from 18+. Added 2,000 shares at the dip. Position now 8,500 at 18.31 average cost. Thesis unchanged: consumer fintech with bank charter, 8M+ members, EBITDA-positive since Q3 2023, trading 1.2x P/B. Used the weakness to scale in. Sold Oct 02/09/16 calls (strikes at 17) to minimize downside risk and generate income. Not adding more after this tranche — will let the calls cap upside and wait for price to recover.
TQQQ trimmed 600 shares. Was 1,900, now 1,300. Book was ahead of NASDAQ by 15.2pp when I cut. Risk-on mode means shifting to individual stock selection (SOFI add, TWLO hold) rather than levered index exposure. Prefer idiosyncratic alpha over beta at this level. Short calls rolled to Oct 02/16.
NVDA stuck in a range around 220-225. Not moving. Added 100 shares via Sep 25 225-put assignment (underlying 224.55 at expiry). Position now 600 shares at 223.24 average. Sold Oct 05/09 220 calls to monetize time decay. Not planning to add more — will sell calls and wait for a breakout or exit on strength.
GOOG Sep 25 330-call assignment added 100 shares at 330 (underlying closed 338.70). Position now 600 shares. Sold Oct 02 340 and 352.5 calls against the new lot. Same playbook as NVDA: covered calls, not adding.
FLEX trimmed 100 shares above 112. Was 700, now 600. Small-cap tech, bullish but keeping both stock and option count contained. Short Oct 16 110 calls remain.
CRWV Sep 25 100-put expired deep ITM. Assigned 200 shares at 100, immediately sold at 90.25. Loss booked (see scratch section). Separately added 200 shares earlier in the week at 95. Net position 700 shares. Short Oct 09/16 90-strike calls.
NU plan to exit on a recovery. 2,600 shares at cost 17.57, last 14.83. Brazil fintech, down 16% from cost. Holding for now but will trim or exit if it rallies back above 16. Oct 02 15 puts still short but not rolling further out.
No HK equity changes. Akeso (9926.HK) 1,000 shares at cost 123.12, last 92.75. HKBN (1310.HK) 4,000 shares at 7.44, last 5.55. Both deep red, holding.
One hold thesis
TWLO remains the largest US equity line at 400 shares, 118,280 USD market value. Cost basis 219.29, current 296. Unrealized gain 30,570 USD. The company printed 1.03B revenue in Q3 (vs 1.01B est), raised Q4 guidance to 1.07-1.08B (vs 1.05B consensus). Non-GAAP operating margin 22% and expanding. Active customer accounts 329K, up 6% YoY. The Sep quarter was the first since the CEO transition (Khozema Shipchandler, formerly COO, replaced Jeff Lawson in Jan 2024). Market read the print as a trough behind, re-acceleration ahead. The short 242.5 straddle (Oct 02 expiry) was sold when underlying was 246; it is now deep ITM on the call side. Accepted assignment risk rather than chase premium. If assigned, will hold the short 100 shares against the existing 400 and re-cover on a dip.
One scratch
CRWV Sep 25 100 put assignment loss. Sold 2 contracts at 7.22 average when underlying was near 95. The name dropped 19 points in one week (high 109 → close 90.25). Put expired ITM by 9.75. Assigned 200 shares at 100, immediately sold at 90.25. Loss per share: 9.75 (intrinsic) - 7.22 (premium collected) = 2.53 net. Total realized loss: 2.53 × 200 = 506 USD. The short put was a leveraged synthetic long; when the drop accelerated below 95, I did not close or roll the put. Held the position hoping for a bounce that never came. The mistake: not managing the put when it breached the strike minus half the collected premium (100 - 3.61 = 96.39). Below that level, time decay no longer covers directional risk. Next time: close or roll when underwater by more than 50% of the premium collected, rather than letting assignment force an exit at the worst possible moment.
One share line for X
NAV 8.25M, TWR YTD 27.38% vs NASDAQ. TWLO crossed 296 after Q3 beat. SOFI added 2K shares. Options rolled to October. Print 002.
Later notes on this entry
Second thoughts stay attached to the original fill. The post is not rewritten.
No later notes yet. The first thought still stands.